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If voter registration drives are the key to winning Florida this election season, Democrats are walking away with the contest.
Fueled partly by the aggressive registration drives of progressive groups, Democratic registration in Florida outpaced Republican registration by nearly 2 to 1 over the first four months of the year. Democrats picked up nearly 105,000 registrations, Republicans gained more than 58,000 and the ranks of independent voters swelled by nearly 87,000.
The burst of registrations so early in the campaign year has even veterans of Florida politics taken aback and reflects a grass roots campaign under way like the state has never seen.
"It sure jumps out at you. That doesn't happen by random," Jim Kane, a nonpartisan pollster in Fort Lauderdale said of the figures. "Something's happening, and it's probably a combination of factors: George W. Bush and people's feelings about the war, these independent groups registering voters, and it could be some demographic shifts."
Republican registration gains are nearly 20 percent higher than during the same period of the 2000 presidential election. Democratic registration is up more than 400 percent over that period.
"Both parties are doing it, but Democrats do a better job. It takes hustling. You've got to sweat, you've got to knock on doors," said Jeff Garcia, a Democratic consultant.
Garcia's clients include Mi Familia Vota, an ostensibly independent group aiming to register 50,000 Hispanic voters in South and Central Florida. Mi Familia claims 10,000 new registrations, with more than six in 10 registering Democratic.
Yet to be tested is the most crucial piece of the grass roots effort: turning out those voters. Many of the progressive groups registering voters, after all, are targeting low-income residents who rarely vote.
"I know some people will look at those (Democratic) voter registration figures and say, "This is amazing,' but it's important to know that victory will go to the Republican Party because we will turn out the vote," said state GOP spokesman Joseph Agostini.
The longer-term picture is rosier for Florida Republicans. Since the 2000 election, Republicans have gained nearly 166,000 registrations, compared with 135,000 for Democrats and 187,000 for people registered for neither party. But while independents for years have been the fastest-growing segment of registrations, Democrats are making dramatic strides.
"I would be remiss if I didn't thank George Bush for being the most effective recruiting tool the Democratic Party could have," said Tom Shea, Sen. John Kerry's Florida campaign manager.
Republicans expect to register at least 100,000 voters before November, and Agostini dismissed the suggestion that Democratic gains have anything to do with the president's popularity.
"It's these shadow groups, what I call the Kerry slush fund groups, who are paying people to register voters," he said. "Look at what our numbers are in the coming months. We're just beginning to rock and roll."
Dozens of well-funded Democratic-leaning groups - legally barred from coordinating with the Kerry campaign - have spread across the state registering voters and trying to sway swing voters. The Tampa-based America Coming Together, with more than 80 paid workers knocking on doors daily, claims to have registered nearly 32,000 people since February.
Even in Republican counties where such groups are not operating, Democrats are outpacing Republicans in voter registration. In Sarasota County, Democrats picked up more than 1,300 registrations while Republicans lost 1,653 in the first four months of the year. In Lee County, Republicans gained nearly 3,400 registrations, but Democrats picked up more than 4,200.
Bob Schaeffer, a Sanibel consultant working for National Voice, a coalition of progressive voter mobilization groups, attributed it to changing demographics: "Moving into Southwest Florida are people with kids. They're service-dependent and that tends to be a more Democratic constituency."
The good news for the GOP is in the Panhandle, where Republicans in recent months have overtaken Democratic registration in several counties, including Escambia, Bay, Walton and Sumter. But those counties have long been voting GOP in presidential elections.
In any given month, county voter rolls can drop by several thousand, as elections officials drop people who have moved, died, been convicted of a felony or failed to vote in years. Pinellas County this year has lost nearly 7,000 Republicans, nearly 1,500 Democrats and nearly 700 others.
Hillsborough County added 2,244 Republicans to the rolls this year, 6,400 Democrats and nearly 8,000 people registered to neither party. Everywhere else along the politically crucial Interstate 4 corridor, Democrats are outpacing independents and Republicans, including Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia counties. The Orange County voter rolls through April added nearly 12,000 Democrats, nearly 4,700 Republicans and nearly 9,300 independents.
The contest is more mixed on the North Suncoast.
Pasco County through May this year added more than 4,900 Republican registrations, more than 4,700 Democrats and nearly 4,000 independents. Hernando County through May added about 1,200 Republicans, more than 1,750 Democrats and nearly 1,200 independents. In Citrus County, Republicans gained 760 registrations, compared with 1,156 Democrats and 599 independents.
- Adam C. Smith can be reached at adam@sptimes.com or 727 893-8241.